Winter is approaching, and the weather people are all looking at El Niño, which impacts the global weather pattern. Winter will mean something else this time as El Niño appears to be winding down, and it could well be that the region is set to experience something quite different in terms of weather. What does this mean for you and your winter wardrobe? Let’s take it apart and see what we might be expecting in this situation with El Niño stepping aside and something else taking its turn under the spotlight.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is part of a bigger climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It occurs when warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator interrupt normal global weather patterns. This normally occurs every two to seven years and may last months, often at its worst during the winter months. During El Niño, one region receives warmer, wetter winters and another drier and cooler conditions, influencing the production of crops up to the activity of hurricanes.
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Global Weather Influence by El Niño
El Niño spreads widely over different continents and influences the global weather. It changes the atmosphere condition because of the warm Pacific waters that, in turn, modify wind and storm patterns. These tend to suggest that El Niño winters will bring more rainfall to the southern United States and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Droughts can be extreme in an El Niño year, like those frequently witnessed in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia. But impacts don’t end there. The North American jet stream can shift, and so too hurricane activity in the Pacific.
But if El Niño is coming out, a new pattern is emerging: a shift in the polar vortex. This shift will impact the winter in ways that are going to leave some folks shivering and others surprised by an unusual warmth. The polar vortex is just a big area of low pressure and cold air over the poles. It is known to shift and even expand southward at times, bringing frigid air into areas that are normally very mild. As El Niño fades, it looks like this polar vortex shift might take center stage in our winter forecast.
Shifts in Snowfall Patterns
A polar vortex shift could also disrupt traditional snowfall patterns. Areas that might normally see moderate snowfall might get hit harder this winter, especially across the Midwest and Northeast. On the other hand, the typically snow-prone Pacific Northwest may see less snowfall than usual, thanks to warmer conditions. This change in snowfall can impact everything from holiday travel plans to skiing conditions, making it a winter to watch for those who love or loathe the snow.
How This Winter Trend Is Different from El Niño
El Niño generally results in well-forecasted warmth and wet conditions in specific regions. However, a polar vortex shift is much less predictable and perhaps even more extreme. While the effects of El Niño tend to build up over time, a polar vortex shift can come suddenly and drastically. Sharp temperature drops, frequent cold snaps, and even unseasonable warmth could mark this winter’s pattern. This could be a winter wild card for those accustomed to the reliability of El Niño winters.
Preparing for the Unpredictable
There will always be an unpredictable winter to tackle. Check the forecast locally in your area regularly. As such, one may make rapid changes when weather decides to do just that- change. One would still need warm clothing as well as emergency supplies depending on the region to feel their worst. On warmer climatic areas, however caution is needed especially about roads filled with ice as well as sudden freezes. Remaining limber and ready might very well be what this whole winter needs in making adjustments.
